Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Risk

To quote myself:

But one thing is: risk of developing a certain cancer is different from risk of developing any cancer is different from risk of cancer recurring in the same person is different from the risk of *that particular cancer" recurring.

What is risk? Well, as a former risk manager...

1) don't let honest questions about risk be demonised as "gambling" vs. "responsibility" or "security."

There's an idiom about weighing risk. An important question to answer is what are the risks being considered, and are they applicable?

You will be asked to compare risks between apples and oranges. For example, the best oncologist in the area recommends lumpectomy, 7 weeks of full breast radiation, 5 years of tamoxifen followed by a lifetime of AI inhibitors, and extreme diet and lifestyle changes, even for those who regularly exercise and are not overweight. Is any oncologist who recommends differently not "the best"? Is the course of treatment recommended NOT "the best"? For whom? In fact, there are two classes of risks here, those of the recommended course versus your particular case, and those of hiring / patronizing a medical professional.

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